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| Vladimir Putin (Flickr) |
Summary:
Vladimir Putin is a Russian president who has been born on 7 Oct 1952 in the soviet city of Leningrad. He is a former intelligence officer and currently a Russian politician and leader. As prime minister, he served from 1999 – 2000 for the first time and then again from 2008-2012. As the only child of his parents, he was the only one left alive. He spent his childhood in Leningrad. He was trained in sambo and judo. Sambo was a martial art, which include judo and wrestling. Soviet red army developed it. Putin did his law at Leningrad state university (LGU) in 1975 then he joined the Soviet intelligence service, the KGB. He completed his one-year study at KGB’s academy in Moscow after that, in 1985 he was transferred to Dresden in East Germany. Dec 1989 cold war was about to end. One month had passed after the fall of the berlin wall. After the end of communism east and West Germany was about to reunite. Some protestor attacked the Russian intelligence agency KGB’s local headquarter in the city of East Germany, Dresden. At that time in this headquarter, Putin was also present. Putin called his seniors for help but they refused. Putin successfully rescue his colleagues after that he was recalled to Leningrad in 1990. He work as a case officer and attained the rank of lieutenant colonel. He returned to Leningrad state university in 1990-91 as a deputy to the vice-rector. He joined the law firm of his former law professor, Anatoly Sobchak. Sobchak was elected as mayor of St. Petersburg. Putin assisted him during his election campaign. Putin was elected as deputy mayor of st. Petersburg in June 1991. He was in charge of external relations in the city committee. In Aug 1991, he resigned from KGB. Sobchak did not elect as mayor in the election of 1996. Putin worked in the kremlin (Moscow) and managed the presidential property. Putin was promoted to deputy chief of presidential staff in Mar 1997. He performed many other responsibilities in Kremlin. In July 1998, he was appointed as the head of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB). After a year, Vladimir Putin was elected as one of the first Russian deputy prime ministers and then prime minister. At that time president Boris Yeltsin's preferred successor president was Putin. After the resignation of Yeltsin, Putin became the acting president of Russia in Dec 1999. Officially, he became the president of Russia in March 2000. Putin was again elected as president for the second time in 2004. He served from 2000 to 2008 as a Russian president. After the amendments to the constitution, Putin was reelected in March 2012 to serve Russia one more time (Hill, 2003).
Introduction
After 2014 Putin start a hybrid war against Ukraine. He wrote an essay in July 2021 under the title of “On the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians”. Putin made a very selective interpretation of the past to dominate the Ukrainian national identity and to fulfill his ambitions.
Ukraine highly rejected Putin’s distortions. The perspective Putin was highly uncontested in the international arena. Putin’s essay indicates that Ukraine has been part of Russia and must remain part of Russia. He referred to the Ukrainian and Russian people as “one people”. He always blames international influences, which divided Russia and Ukraine as two modern nations. Indeed Russia and Ukraine share a long period of the same history then they have separated apart from each other. Russian rule is much darker for Ukrainian. Many Ukrainian did not appreciate Putin’s perspective and watch the historical relationship as a darker period for Ukraine. Russia wanted to suppress the Ukrainian nation-building efforts instead of making the partnership of equal rights. Russia defined its historical relationship with Ukraine as a dominant nation. This shows that they always exert greater control to suppress Ukraine. The very first incident of brutality happened in 1709 when Russian troops brutally murdered the entire population of Cossack (the capital city of Ukraine). During the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, the urge to suppress Ukraine and take control over them was strengthened. Under this idea, efforts were made to suppress the national identity of the Ukrainian people. Restrictions were made on the use of the Ukrainian language. The Ukrainian language publication was banned. Russia banned the Ukrainian language under the following sentence “a separate Ukrainian (little Russian) language has never existed, does not exist, and shall not exist.” The anti-Ukrainian agenda of Russia was expanded in the 20th century dramatically. Russian targeted the potential leaders of Ukraine. Russian troops invade Ukraine during First World War and arrest Andrey Sheptysky. He was the Archbishop and Metropolitan of the Ukrainian Catholic Church. He was a famous personality within Ukraine. This indicates the Russian superior behavior. In 1917 during the Russian revolution, again the Bolshevik armies invaded Ukraine and brutally murder the people. They crushed the major statehood bid of the country. Anti-Bolshevik (white Russian army) opposed Ukraine during the establishment of a separate state. This is the point on which both sides actually agreed. Ukrainian independence was opposed by Russia and the anti-Bolshevik armies. In 1920-30, the soviet dictator released that there is a coordinated terror was planned against Ukrainian intelligentsia. Many Ukrainian scholars, scientists, and writers were arrested and sent to prison under the charge of bourgeois nationalism”. At the same time, an artificial famine collapses the Ukrainian countryside. About 4 million people were dead during this famine. This campaign is the best example of genocide by Raphael. Raphael Lemkin is the man who initiated the term genocide convention. Until the last year of the USSR, the russification policies recall the norm in soviet Ukraine right. After 2014, the Ukrainian language has been eradicated from the curriculum in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. The Orthodox Church one of the symbols of Ukraine's identity has also been targeted by occupation authorities. It shows Putin’s reality behind brotherly love (Russia, 2021).
The Putin of Russia or Russia of Putin?
In 2000 Vladimir Putin officially became the president of Russia after the resignation of Boris Yeltsin. He was the president of Russia before Putin but he step down, and Putin take the charge as an acting prime minister. After the election, Boris Yeltsin only won the half of majority. Putin made revolutionary changes in Russia. He strengthened and power the Russian role in the world. These revolutionary changes have come at a huge cost. The country became democratic after Putin’s election. Putin is one of the most powerful leaders. According to Moscow Putin rule until 2036. In this way, Putin will become the world’s longest-serving leader.
There is not much to celebrate in the Russia of Putin
Twenty years ago, no one think that Putin would become the most popular Russian leader and longest-serving Russian leader since Joseph. If you ask someone twenty years ago the response of people may be laughter or silence. He became president at the age of 40. He was a young, energetic, and sober person about Boris Yeltsin who was sick and aged president. He spent his later year in the Kremlin. In the last years of his rule, gangsters took hold of the Russia and government. Putin took reforms in tax. He has grown the Russian economy to beat Portugal. Many people admire him as well as many misread him. He represents Russia as a more modern and developed country. At the time of the brutal war in Chechnya Putin was launched as a political figure. Putin was picked by the inner circle of Boris Yeltsin and guaranteed their amnesty. His background in the Soviet era and KGB ensures that he is a better choice for the country. An aging leader who has traditional ideologies which stuck to his political development in addition to this the corruption and unreformed economy make Russia an under-develop country that only relays on natural resources. Putin not only develops new resources but also restore the Soviet Union. Now he faces a problem related to oil prices. His response during the coronavirus pandemic was poor. Then the postponement of the constitutional referendum meeting also shows that his new attitude turned more like to be the old one. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, his 20th-anniversary party has been canceled. It shows that the Russian's view regarding Vladimir Putin is the same as the worldviews of the US. It means that the Russians are grateful to Putin for their reforming and their actions to make the future better for Russia. However, when it comes to the Ukraine conflict and some other actions, Putin is subject to controversy. Russians do not see an alternative to Putin. Putin's goals regarding foreign policies and Russia are not much different from the past Russian, imperial Russian, and soviet foreign policy goals. Putin gives new birth to Russia. He worked a lot to improve the economic condition of Russia. He gives the turnover to Russia on the world stage. Putin develops a system that is depending on it. All difficulties in the economy help him to develop an extraordinary system that eventually depends on him. This will end with Putin as he is in power he takes decisions and act according to himself.
The dependence of Russia on Putin
He develops the balance of power and drives good international relations. Russia was a weak state that develop due to the soviet collapse. So this state completely depends on superpowers like the United States. Russia now emerges as a developing country. Russia recovered the power of a state. Russia develops as another major power in the world. This would maybe happen with or without Vladimir Putin. The ideology of the leader greatly affects the state's behavior. The leader of the state has a great influence on the state just like that, Vladimir Putin also has a great impact on Russia and the Russian people. Boris Yeltsin as a deputy prime minister and then the Russian people elected him as a leader first selected Putin. He was officially president in 2000. Putin accidentally starts his political career. He has blur view of foreign policy and governance. In the early period, he made a check on executive power. In 2008, he made some reforms to the constitution. He change democracy with consolidated autocracy. Gradually Vladimir Putin rejected liberalism and multilateralism. He appreciates and promotes orthodox and national ideas. Putin and Putinism do not support national ideas. Before Putin in the era of Mikhail Gorbachev, Boris Yeltsin, and Dmitry Medvedev have not supported liberal ideas much. The Russians cooperate with the west to survive the economy.
Leader matters a lot that is why Russia and the west are not confronted forever. They have a balanced power in the international system. As the leader, change the path of the country, also change. If some new leader is elected in Russia then the same thing happens there. Vladimir Putin make Russia a developed country. He makes the Russian economy develop in the market. The first time when he was elected he warned the western government to stop their interference in civil liberties, politics, and the economy of the country. If Vladimir Putin follows the promise he made in his early era then Russia become totally a different country. Russia plays a more responsible role on the global stage. Since 2008, the economy has not grown as it grew in the early era of Putin’s rule. Putin's economic model has failed but he does not admit this. Even the loyalist admit that there is a need for political change. Putin now wishes to serve as a lifetime ruler which is why he has not admitted his mistakes. With all these issues Russia, also face international sanctions which shows that Russia excludes future positive economic development. Russia restores its position by developing relations with other countries like china. Russia has to change its behavior towards the other dictatorial regimes. Putin has nothing to offer positively to the world instead of disinformation, threats, and disruption.
How much Putin matters to Russia
Many in the West believe that 20 years ago Vladimir Putin was elected by Russian security services with a proper calculation to establish the force in Russia. The west still thinks that Putin was responsible for the cold war. After Boris Yeltsin, it seemed that Russia was weakened but in the era of Putin, everyone saw things differently. Most Russians think that Putin helps Russia to uplift the global market. The west also thinks that Putin supports the fragile economic condition of Russia and strengthens Russia's position on the global stage. Most of the Russian population support Putin as a leader that restores the Russian economy and position. Putin brings law and order to the country. For Russians, Putin is a Russian common person like other Russian, a midlevel KGB officer who help Russia to overcome the crisis, which was made 20 years ago during the era of Boris Yeltsin. This is what Russian people think but actually, Putin is a chameleon. He took the decision and show his power. He is a ruthless security man, which brutally killed anyone to strengthen his position and power. He is not strengthening the democracy in the country instead of this he shows his importance and power by any means legally or illegally. Putin took the control of Russia, and now he rewrite the rules and show his power by implementing them. He corrupted western politicians by using the illicit funds of the KGB in the 1970s. He is now using the same tactics and policies to corrupt western politicians and institutes. He is now funded differently. He is using the Russian economy and penetrating deeply into the western market to fulfill his desires. The Russian economy is like a deep well of cash to show power in the western community. Putin succeeded to weaken western society and their influence on Russia. Western democracy and liberalism are now restricted compared to 20 years ago before the era of Putin in the time of Boris Yeltsin. Putin has to strengthen the economy without a strong economy his power game will collapse and ended soon. He and his companions have to learn that this is a short-term power game and without a strong economy, this cannot go longer. Putin has to change his political and economic policies to maintain the Russian position on the global stage.
The Young generation of Russia under the Putin era
Russia has now become an authoritarian and centralized state. Russia returned to its position as a global player. Russia struggles to overcome the crisis and influence of western and establish good international relations with China. In the last years of Boris Yeltsin, Russia was under the great influence of the west and gangster took control of the government. Boris Yeltsin was an old man who could not handle this situation and the Russian economy collapse badly. At that time, Russia struggles to maintain its economy and global relations. Putin restore Russian power, as he knows that this will be helpful for him to gain power. Russia is a powerful country. Putin has two purposes to maintain the Russian role in the world. First, he wants to show his power and second, he did not like United State and western influence. He wants to overcome the influence of the west and distract them. Before 2014, Russia has a healthy relationship with the west, but after Crimea invade Ukraine (the power show of Russia) west changes its view about Putin and their policies. While the rest of the world regards Russia and admits it is a large authoritarian state. Most of the world wants to do business with Russia after this power show. However, in the era of the coronavirus, Russia's GDP growth rate is decreased. Coronavirus overall collapsed the world economy. This is the financial crisis year for Russia. High prices of oil in 2000-2008 and the financial crisis decreased the growing economic rate of Russia. Putin maintains the power influence of Russia. The Russian project has been limited due to the decrease in oil prices and economic growth rate. The role and influence of Putin made Russia an aggressive country. The controversial personality of Putin made the role of both (Russia and Putin) suspicious. Putin made Russia a distrustful country of outsiders. The rest of the world does not trust Russia for business after the decline in the economic rate. Gradually this distrust was rooted deep down in Russia for visitors and other countries. Instead of this Russian behavior inside the country toward outsiders is the same as the rest of the world treated the visitor. In the current era, people have the right to protest against government policies. This is the era of freedom to speak. Russian people protest against the national and international crises in the kremlin. This is an aggressive side of the Russian population, which shows the great impact of their leader on them. Putin's people did not satisfy with the protestor. They announce that the people who hurt the police and other security persons should have been arrested and their livers dirty on the asphalt. After that Ukrainian protest in the street of Kyiv and the kremlin, protestors attack Crimea. In front of the world, Putin made a significant shift. Before Putin Russia was influenced by Europe's democratization. In history, Russia was part of east Europe's democratization. After the fall of the berlin wall, this case was moved to court under the supervision of Mikhail Gorbachev. The war of Chechnya was seen as a prism for the war of Yugoslavia. The war of Chechnya happened to be in the era of Boris Yeltsin. This will show the failure of Boris Yeltsin. Putin change all that and shifted the countries to the traditional place towards the east. Russia has had this place as a traditional place for centuries. Russia is no more under the influence of the west and Eastern Europe. Now Russia become a powerful and totalitarian country. The nation is bound to traditions and history. Putin makes terrible policies and this is a damaging contribution of Putin to Russia's economy. There will be hope that Russia become a normal and rational country.
The aggressive and suspicious Russia
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| Russia Ukraine Conflict Zone (Wikimedia) |
Putin weakened the state to fulfill his wishful desires. He wants to become a powerful leader and this will end with the economic collapse of Russia. The behavior of Putin eliminated the political competition from Russia. On the other hand, older people appreciate Putin restoring the Russian position on the global stage. After the turmoil of the 1990s, Putin overcomes the Russian crisis. Putin did not work for ordinary people in Russia. He made the country a kleptocracy. Day by day as the power Putin increases the threat to his power internally and externally increases. This is the fact that Putin become more dominant day by day and suppressed Russian freedom. Putin has boosted Russia globally but Russia is internally weak. Some policies of Putin need improvement.
A Brand of strongman that others look forward to emulating
He lost his grip on power hence his investment has been lost in upgrading his military, and his capability to utilize the asymmetries born due to the interest that has been present between the west and Russia bestows Putin a window to gain control over opportunities, even those opportunities whose seizing may cause a violation of international laws. Today Russia is the central point of most of the consequence issues that have been taking place globally. Putin has a sharp mind, he has eyes on the limited influence that Russia has. That is why he thought of using the western world democracies to help Russia get better in the relative standings. His vision of having a strongman brand and tactics influenced other world countries, mainly anti-democratic to emulate. The drawback that Putin brings along with him is his steps of alienating Russia from another world. This put Russia in the regimes of rejected regimes that include Nicolás Maduro, Bashar ul asad, Xi Jinping, and Hassan rouhani. This illustrates the saying, a man is known by the company he keeps.
The trajectory of democracy
Putin evolved Russia with his utmost efforts from a corrupted democracy to an ideal authoritarian but also from a renowned and admired partner to a pariah in the stage of international affairs. By the year 2000, Russia demonstrates vibrant free electorates, a succeeding civil society, and a pluralistic parliament. On the prodigious stage of the world, Russia was a prominent figure in the global club of industrialized democracies, a flag holder of human rights, yanking his citizen to come under the vast umbrella of Europe that came with the oversight mechanism. It takes not only a lot of effort but also costs Russia many mistakes, struggles, and problems in both the economic and political spheres but the sight of peace was that the trajectory it was following was the right one (How Putin Changed Russia Forever, 2020).
Analysis
Ukraine conflict is at its peak point and its national struggle and geopolitical orientation will decide whether its tilts toward Moscow or the west. The outcome of this conflict will have a great impact on the national sovereignty of Ukraine. This will have a long-term impact on Ukrainian and Russians as well.
In 2014 Russia invaded Ukraine and illegally occupied 5% of the landmass there. In this invasion, Russia also occupied more than half the coastline. This war has resulted in the loss of more than 13000 lives and 30000 injuries. This also collapsed Ukraine's economy and slow down the progress rate of Ukraine. Now Russia again moves a large number of soldiers across the border of Ukraine. This conflict between Russia and Ukraine is at high risk due to the deterioration of relations between Russia and the United State. The intention of Russia toward NATO countries and Eastern
Europe is on a serious note. Ukraine is a NATO country and ally of the United States so this can create tension in Russia as well as in Eastern Europe and the United States (Shehadi, 2022).
The five possible outcomes
The middle-way scenario:
Russia uses military power to bind Ukraine and keep its distance from NATO and European Union.
Russia makes a strategy to take control of Ukraine and besides this Russia try to make a good relationship with NATO and the west. The Eastern Ukraine conflict helps Russia to achieve its goals. The eastern Ukraine conflict must keep frozen so that major fights stop because these conflicts are without any conclusive end (COFFEY, 2021).
The more dangerous separatists
Moscow establishes the separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk regions so that they create a political entity and function like a state. Luhansk power plant and the port of Mariupol are under the control of the Ukraine government. In these circumstances, there should be a need of piecemeal to resolve the issues (COFFEY, 2021).
The Crimea aggression as the land bridge
Russian foundation builds a new bridge across the coast of Kerch strait. On the other hand, Ukraine blocked the freshwater source of Crimea. Russian connection with Crimea is also a challenge for Russia. Crimea has fresh water sources and Russia try to make a Russian lake by turning the Sea of Azov. This will only be possible when the military force captures Ukraine's 10th largest city and port, Mariupol (COFFEY, 2021).
Major cities devastation
Russia tries to control the Novorossiya region and southern Ukraine. This should consider the most offensive behavior of Russia. If Russia captures this area then a land bridge built that connects Russia with Crimea and links Moldova with Russia. However, this all required the great movement of Russian forces to take the control of Odesa, which is the third largest city in Ukraine and Mariupol. If this would happen then it changes the geopolitical landscape of Eastern Europe. This also changes the security landscape of Eastern Europe, which is not shown after World War II (COFFEY, 2021).
A wildcard:
Russia took benefit of Ukraine's internal conflicts (the problem in the Budiak region and Odesa). Russia try to stir the condition so that a political crisis has been happening there and caused problems in Kyiv (the place where the central government existed). Budjak connects with Ukraine by a single road. The dominant position of the Russian army in Budjak also threatens the solidity of Odesa (COFFEY, 2021).
Modern Ukraine was the symbol of a struggling country, which make effort to create a good relationship with the rest of the world. Ukraine is determined by the country and chooses its path. No outsider can make a close relationship with any organization in Ukraine. The United States always supports Ukraine as an independent nation (Conflict in Ukraine, n.d.). Let’s see where this war ends.
Bibliography
COFFEY, L. (2021, Dec 9). What Russia might do in Ukraine: 5 scenarios. Retrieved from breaking defense: https://breakingdefense.com/2021/12/what-russia-might-do-in-ukraine-5-scenarios/
Conflict in Ukraine. (n.d.). Conflict in Ukraine. Retrieved from Global Conflict Tracker: https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine
Hill, C. G. (2003). Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin. In C. G. Hill, Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin.
How Putin Changed Russia Forever. (2020, May 7). How Putin Changed Russia Forever. Retrieved from foreign policy: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/07/how-putin-changed-russia-forever/
Russia, P. o. (2021, July 12). Article by Vladimir Putin ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“. Retrieved from kremlin: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181
Shehadi, S. (2022, january 31). ‘Who’s going to travel here or invest now?’: The impact of the Ukraine crisis. Retrieved from investment monitor: https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/analysis/ukraine- Russia-business-impact-investment
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